While watching the German game tonight, I couldn’t help but realize one very important aspect of the tournament thus far.
You can essentially throw out the results of every Canadian and Russian game that’s been played thus far.
Here’s why.
With the exception of short stints of USA/Canada and Russia/Czech Republic, nobody has taken an attacking approach to either of the super-powers. The game plan going into all 7 games they’ve combined to play has unanimously been “let’s not get stomped.”
The Norwegians and Swiss played a tough trap against Canada, any prolonged offensive pressure resulted from a breakdown of that defensive system. In American game, the US was content to send a single man deep on most occasions, sometimes two. They were trying to force turnovers on the Canadian breakout, but really weren’t interested in getting into a shootout with Team Canada.
The Russians faced a similar situation against Latvia and, although I didn’t witness it, the Slovakians. Content to pounce on turnovers, nobody has attempted to take the play to them. The Czech’s were suckered into brief exchanges of end-to-end rushes, but they quickly reverted to their defensive system.
When Canada and Russia face each other on Wednesday, neither team is going to sit back and wait. Both will be looking to take the play to the other, and I firmly believe the outcome will be decided based on who is more successful in doing so.
Which team will be able to get the puck deep, get their men on it first, win the battles in the corners, and from this, generate scoring chances? If that’s the type of game it’ll be, Canada’s forwards and defenseman are both better suited to that style. If, however, the game turns into two elite teams exchanging odd-man rushes, you have to favour the skill of the Russians forwards.
Another key factor will be the absence of Sergei Zinoviev. I’ve maintained that he’s a very good forward, and would be a factor in the Olympics, but an injury has removed him from the Russian roster. Opting to carry 8 defenseman and 12 forwards, that leaves the Russians a man short. Unfortunately for Canada, this is probably not good news. Pavel Datsyuk and Evgeni Malkin, the 2 centers expected to pick up Zinoviev’s minutes, are both accustomed to playing 20+ minutes at the NHL level. The added ice-time may serve to their benefit, letting them get more into the flow of the game.