Dealing (with?) Kaberle

Posted: 27th July 2010 by Adam in Toronto Maple Leafs
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TSN did what TSN sometimes does and presented some unsubstantiated and essentially pointless piece about the Toronto Maple Leafs and their on-again, off-again trading of Tomas Kaberle.  I’m sure that hockey fans everywhere are just about tired of the longest running saga in the NHL.

At this point, I don’t even understand the infatuation with trading Kaberle.  It is exceedingly unlikely that the Leafs will acquire something of tangible value for Kaberle.  The best return they can hope for is another 4-9 forward (which they seem to be collecting) and/or some draft picks.  He isn’t going to fetch a top 3 forward.

Which is why I think the Maple Leafs need to do 1 of 2 things.

If they decide that Tomas Kaberle will no longer be a serviceable top-4 defenseman when they’re ready to content (he should be in his 50’s at that point), they have to trade him.  Rather than acquire a mediocre “first-line” forward, like Ryan Malone, they should aim for a 4-9 forward and a combination of draft picks/prospects.  They need to focus on accumulating young players and draft picks, and almost have to aim for quantity over quality.  They aren’t going to acquire a top-5 draft pick or a sure-fire prospect, so it has to be a bunch of middle-of-the-road type players/picks.  From that, you hope that someone pans out and becomes the next Henrik Zetterberg.

If Tomas Kaberle can be a piece of the puzzle, he needs a contract extension.  Make him put his money where his mouth is, and give the hometown discount.  We should be able to sign him to a retirement contract and put his cap hit down into the $3-4 million range.  In that case, he would have one of the best contracts in the NHL for the next couple of seasons, while continuing to contribute to the team’s fortunes and mentoring the younger guys (like Gunnarsson).

Either way, this should be settled by August 15th and I will not be sad to see the end of this.

Rookie Tournament

Posted: 26th July 2010 by Adam in Chicago Blackhawks, Ottawa Senators, Pittsburgh Penguins, Toronto Maple Leafs
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A pleasant surprise found its way to my Inbox this afternoon.  A 4-team rookie tournament will be held in London, just down the street from my office.  Rookies and prospects from the Leafs, Senators, Penguins, and Blackhawks will do battle in a 4-day mini-series.

The pre-sale price for tickets ranges from $16.75 for an afternoon game to $19.25 for an evening game.  Given that the annual NHL preseason game in London will cost at least $60, this seems to be a steal.  These tournaments are awesome hockey; good, young players trying hard to make an impression before the main camp.

I’m looking forward to seeing what Nazem Kadri will bring to the table.  I assume we’ll also get to see Jussi Rynnas and Ben Scrivens, the Leafs 2 big offseason goaltending pickups.

After the ridiculousness of the Kovalchuk situation, it’s nice to think about some on-ice action.  Can’t wait!

The Kovalchuk Debacle

Posted: 25th July 2010 by Adam in CBA, New Jersey Devils
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The recent signing of Ilya Kovalchuk by the New Jersey Devils to a 17-year, $102 million contract, and subsequent rejection of said contract by the NHL, has raised a number of interesting points for fans of the NHL and sports in general.

The details of Kovalchuk’s contract have been hashed out in the media more times than I care to count, so I won’t do that here.  What I haven’t heard mentioned, however, is what would have happened to the contract if the NHL’s salary structure changed significantly.  Obviously we can’t know what the next round of collective bargaining will reveal; most people wouldn’t have predicted a salary rollback going into the negotiations of 2005.

In the current CBA, the individual salary cap floats at 20% of the team salary cap.  With Kovalchuk set to make $11.5 million for a few years of this deal, it would take only a slight drop in NHL revenues (or the NHLPA realizing that the escrow portion of their CBA is killing them) for him to exceed the individual cap (currently at roughly $11.8 million).  Given the global economic shitstorm, the NHL can’t be naive enough (actually, they can) to believe that their revenues will continue to climb.

Another interesting aspect of this deal that the MSM seems to be glossing over is the retirement factor.  Because of Kovalchuk’s age when signing the contract, the Devils would be able to remove it from their books, penalty-free, if and when he decided to hang up his skates.  The MSM seems fixated on the fact that his salary dips below $1 million for the final 7 seasons; rarely has it been mentioned that Kovalchuk is unlikely to play out the contract, effectively making this a 10-year, $95 million contract. 

Finally, this contract highlights a problem with sports in general.  Players sign multi-year contracts.  Other players use contracts signed in previous seasons as comparables, and expect a slight increase.  The problem is that the economics change every season.  If the NHL, as a collective, isn’t raking in huge amounts of money, the players have to learn that their salaries can’t continue to increase without bound.  There will have to be a market correction at some point.  Player salaries, across all sports, are extremely similar to the housing bubble.  The prices for free agents have risen without restriction for 20 years now.  They will correct at some point, and I can only hope that it won’t cost us another hockey season.

Frolicking Amongst the Worst

Posted: 8th July 2010 by Adam in Toronto Maple Leafs
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I’m going to stray from hockey a bit today, and into the broader sports landscape.  With news from the NBA that Chris Bosh has decided to leave Toronto for the sunny beaches of Miami, the Toronto Raptors are now poised to endure another prolonged period of mediocrity.

The question has been raised as to whether or not Toronto is the worst sports city in North America.  Maybe I didn’t truly realize how bad the situation was…but it isn’t pretty.  Here’s some research.

I started by considering the last 3 complete seasons from the NHL, NBA, and MLB.  I then added in the NFL and CFL.  At 3 seasons per league, and the opportunity for teams in each of the 4 leagues, we find that there are 14 cities that were represented in all 4 sports.

  • Atlanta
  • Boston
  • Chicago
  • Dallas
  • Denver
  • Detroit
  • Los Angeles
  • Miami
  • Minneapolis
  • New York
  • Philadelphia
  • Phoenix
  • Toronto
  • Washington

Given that MLB, the NBA and the NFL/CFL don’t officially track “points”, I invented a points system for those leagues.  2 points for a win, 1 for a tie (NFL/CFL), and 0 for a loss.  Given that each game represents the potential for 2 points, we can look at the # of wins (and ties) and determine the total percentage of possible points that were earned by each team.  We take that number, and determine the average of all teams across all leagues in each of the 3 seasons.

The results are not pretty for us Toronto sports fans.

image

So it could be worse.  The Washington teams are almost assured of moving up this list.  The Capitals will be contenders in the NHL for years to come, while the Nationals are in the midst of a promising looking rebuild.  Things are certainly looking up in Washington.

Having said that, it appears that Minnesota fans have it worse than Toronto fans.  Right?  Well, the good seasons of the Twins and Vikings are offset by some miserable showings by the Timberwolves and Wild.  But at least they have 2 teams consistently in the playoff mix.  I’d take that.

Consider Toronto.  The Argonauts are in the CFL.  Frankly, I had to convince myself to even include the CFL results.  The Blue Jays continue to sell hope, but their odds of reaching the postseason while competing in the American League East are slim-to-none.  The Raptors just closed the book on the Chris Bosh era, and all they have to show for it are a pair of early playoff exits.  And the Maple Leafs?  Well, they’re rebuilding without a roadmap.  At their current pace, the Maple Leafs will top out as a mediocre playoff team before blowing it up to start again.

It is not a good time to be a fan of Toronto sports.

Retro Flames

Posted: 7th July 2010 by Adam in Calgary Flames
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One of the biggest surprises of the July 1st free agency period was the signings of the Calgary Flames.  As most of you know, the Flames signed 2 former players; Olli Jokinen (2 years, $3M cap hit) and Alex Tanguay (1 year, $1.7M cap hit).  Most people are befuddled by this.

It starts with the media.  Some day the general public will realize that most members of the media are lazy.  It’s not that they’re incapable of understanding the rationale behind moves (except Steve Simmons and Bill Watters, they’re just too terrifically stupid), they just have no motive for posting clear and logical arguments in support of (or against) a particular topic.  The quick way to website hits is a flashy headline, and it’s easier to write a quick story to crucify a move than it is to actually do some research.

You may have guessed that I really like the moves made by the Flames.

Let’s start with Alex Tanguay.  In the last 3 years, Tanguay has put up 58 points (in 78 games for Calgary in 07-08), 41 points (in 50 games for Montreal in 08-09) and 37 points (in 80 games for Tampa in 09-10).  Tanguay has always been at his best when used as a setup man on the power-play.  He filled that role during his prime seasons with Colorado.  In Tampa Bay, however, Tanguay received less power-play time than 5 other forwards, including Ryan Malone and Steve Downie.  If Calgary can find a way to use Tanguay to the full extent of his abilities, he can be a steal of a deal at 1.7M this season.

36, 26, 38, 39, 34, 29, 15.  Those are Olli Jokinen’s goal totals since the 2002-03 season.  I think it’s reasonably well established that Jokinen is a 30-goal scorer in the NHL.  The problem with Jokinen’s last stay in Calgary (producing only 19 goals in 75 games) is again one of misuse.  Olli Jokinen is not a setup man, he’s a trigger man.  The Flames originally acquired Jokinen to play Oates to Iginla’s Hull.  It didn’t work, and it won’t work.  Based on Darryl Sutter’s comments since the 2nd acquisition of Jokinen, the Flames have acknowledged the error of their ways.  If they can put Jokinen on a 2nd line with someone who can feed him the puck (Alex Tanguay perhaps), he can be a really productive forward.  He can also help quarterback the power-play, with Iginla doing the dirty work down load and Tanguay working the side boards.

I’m not attempting to say that either Jokinen or Tanguay are the key to the Flames woes, but for a combined cap hit of $4.7M, the Flames have way more to gain from this than they do to lose.  If the pair can combine for 100 points (very reasonable expectations), than July 1st was a banner day for the Calgary Flames; despite what the media would have you believe.

Colby Armstrong, Eh?

Posted: 6th July 2010 by Adam in Toronto Maple Leafs
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When Brian Burke promised the denizens of Leafs Nation that his draft began July 1st, I’m sure that most fans were anticipating something more tangible than Colby Armstrong.  Granted, it was a weak free agent class, but this was the man who was able to turn 15% of an AHL team into Dion Phaneuf and J.S. Giguere.  Most Leafs fans felt we were on the verge of acquiring an entire first line, relegating Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak to the 2nd line.

What we got was Colby Armstrong. 

There’s nothing wrong with Colby Armstrong, and he fills a void.  He’s a high energy guy that Leafs fans will probably enjoy, but he won’t put the biscuit in the basket, and that’s the problem.

We did resign Nikolai Kulemin, to a very good deal, so that relieves some of the pain.  But the underlying problem persists.  And now our hope is beginning to dim.

The Maple Leafs, frequent boasters of their salary cap space, are suddenly fairly tight up against it.  After accounting for the signings of Armstrong, Kulemin, and John Mitchell, and the bonuses paid out for the past season, the Leafs are down to roughly $4M in room.  That’s hardly enough to enact the “give us your bad contracts and a prospect” plan that Brian Burke has been touting.  And even though they continue to claim that they’re more than willing to bury a contract in the minor leagues, Jeff Finger remained an NHL player throughout the 2009-10 season.

I was hoping for fireworks, I got a sparkler.

Kessel Trade Gets Even Better

Posted: 22nd June 2010 by Adam in Boston Bruins, Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs
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As if the Phil Kessel trade were not already a landmark winner for the Bruins, it got better today.

Acquiring the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 NHL entry draft from the Maple Leafs allowed the Bruins to shop their own 1st round draft pick (15th overall) in the same draft.  And today they netted their fish.  The Bruins acquired Nathan Horton (3rd overall pick in 2003) and Gregory Campbell from the Florida Panthers for Dennis Wideman, their aforementioned draft pick, and their 3rd round pick in 2011.

Let’s recap this deal.

To Boston: Nathan Horton, Gregory Campbell, 2010 2nd overall pick, 2010 32nd overall pick, 2011 1st round pick

Out of Boston: Phil Kessel, Dennis Wideman, 2010 15th overall pick, 2011 3rd round pick.

Some rather shrewd dealing by the Bruins, if I do say so myself.

With today’s trade the Bruins took giant leaps towards addressing their biggest problem: offensive punch.  Horton has 35+ goal potential, and should blossom with the move out of Miami.  Campbell can kill penalties and plays a reliable game.  Moving Wideman does open a hole on the backend for the Bruins, but that could be addressed through free agency.

Trading Halak…for Plekanec?

Posted: 22nd June 2010 by Adam in Montreal Canadiens
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It’s been a while since I’ve posted.  Life is busy for me, but the pace at which the hockey world has been moving puts my personal trials to shame.

The latest news today is that the Montreal Canadiens have signed enigmatic forward Tomas Plekanec to a 6-year deal worth $30,000,000.  The Canadiens will now be paying over 20% of their available cap space to Scott Gomez and Tomas Plekanec, a pair of centers that don’t exactly scream first-line.

Even more frustrating for fans of the bleu-rouge-et-blanc is that the Canadiens had to part ways with Jaroslav Halak in order to facilitate the signing of Plekanec.  I’m not prepared to say the Halak deal was a bad one (the bar for pending RFA players was set low by Jay Bouwmeester), but I’m not sure I’d have made it if the only motivation was clearing space for Plekanec.

According to nhlnumbers.com the Canadiens currently have just over $28M tied up in 7 forwards, just under $20M in 6 defenseman, and $0 going to their goaltending.  Supposing the cap is at $58.5M (as proposed here by David Shoalts in the Globe & Mail), the Habs will have some work to do.  They’ll have around $10M to spend and need to ink at least 6 forwards, a defenseman, and 2 goalies.

Good luck.

Model the Flyers

Posted: 5th June 2010 by Adam in Chicago Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers
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Throughout the finals, hockey pundits have been arguing that the Chicago Blackhawks are the model after which you should strive to build your team.  I talked about this before, coming to the conclusion that there is no perfect model.

I’m ready to toss that out and say that the Philadelphia Flyers are the model franchise.  The sad part is that they’ve gotten where they are almost accidentally.

The Flyers have mediocre, anonymous goaltending.  This flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but recent research indicates that the gap between mediocre, anonymous goaltending and superstar, big-name goaltending isn’t that large.  In other words, the difference between Michael Leighton and Roberto Luongo isn’t worth the price tag.

The Flyers have a forward group that consists of smart draft picks, brilliant trades, and free agent signings that have paid off.  People are applauding the Blackhawks for selecting Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, but those were no-brainer choices.  They were the clear option when the selection came up, and didn’t require a lot of foresight on the Hawks part.  The Flyers, conversely, acquired Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, and Claude Giroux with late 1st round picks.  When you combine that level of draft success with the kind of trade that sees you land Ville Leino for a 7th defenseman, you have the recipe for a dynamic group of forwards.

On the blueline, the Flyers were able to build a top-4 through trades and contract extensions that is the envy of most teams around the league.

If there’s a model to follow, it’s the Flyers, not the Hawks.  Not the Penguins, and not the Capitals.  The plans for those teams were initiated not intentionally, but they were forced down the path because their teams were atrociously bad.  They finished in the bottom 5 for prolonged stretches.

The Flyers have built a quality team without going through years of inadequacy, without risking the fan base, and without missing the playoffs for a long string of seasons.

The Stanley Cup Model

Posted: 25th May 2010 by Adam in Chicago Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers, Toronto Maple Leafs
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An interesting discussion arose on Prime Time Sports yesterday.  The caller (clearly an absent-minded member of Leafs Nation) wanted to know what the Flyers were doing right that the Leafs weren’t, and by extension, should.  The simple answer is “they’re winning”, but that’s not interesting.

The host then referenced the Chicago Blackhawks and their “smart drafting” as the strategy you want to model your franchise after.  I’m not sure what the “smart” part was; it surely didn’t take a lot of genius to draft Patrick Kane 1st overall in 2007, or Jonathan Toews at #3 in 2006 (behind Erik Johnson and Jordan Staal).  They did draft Duncan Keith in the 2nd round…8 years ago.  Brent Seabrook in the 1st round, 7 years ago.

The Hawks are indeed the model for rebuilding a franchise, much in the same mould as the Penguins and the Capitals.  In order to become an elite team, you must suffer through being a horrendous one.  You need to accumulate years of top 10 draft picks.  Then you need to excel at player development.  You also need to hope that everyone stays healthy and develops as projected.  There’s also a luck factor there.

If, and it’s a significant if, you can manage the draft portion of the rebuild, you then need to supplement your draft picks with quality free agent signings.  The Blackhawks tried this, and failed.  Khabibulin, Lapointe, Aucoin, Campbell, etc…  There’s a long list of albatross contracts, something the Blackhawks already paid dearly for when they had to part ways with Cam Barker (the #3 pick in 2004).

The correct answer is that there is no answer.  There’s no blueprint to follow when building a Stanley Cup contending team.  You have to get lucky with your drafting, you have to get lucky with your development, and you have to get lucky in free agency.

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